ECONOMICS

PRIOR INFORMATION IN REGRESSION: TO CHOOSE OR NOT TO CHOOSE?

A multiple shrinkage estimator is developed and its properties are compared to those of other shrinkage estimators that require one to choose one from a set of possible prior hypotheses.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PI: Lee C. Adkins

STEIN-RULE ESTIMATORS FOR LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS WITH AUTOCORRELATED ERRORS

A Stein-rule estimator is developed for use in the linear regression model with AR (1) errors.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PI: Lee C. Adkins

SHRINKAGE ESTIMATION IN NONLINEAR MODELS

Shrinkage estimates were developed for use in Nonlinear Models.

Sponsor: Dean's Excellence Fund
PIs: Lee C. Adkins
Louisiana State University-R. Carter Hill

COINTEGRATION TESTS OF THE UNBIASED EXPECTATIONS HYPOTHESIS IN METALS MARKETS

The unbiased expectations hypothesis is tested in the copper and silver markets.

Sponsor: Dean's Excellence Fund
PIs: Lee C. Adkins and Timothy L. Krehbiel

USING PRIOR INFORMATION IN COINTEGRATED SYSTEMS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STOCHASTIC PROCESSES

Stein-rule estimator of the parameters of a cointegrated vector autoregressive system is developed and its properties are studied in a Monte Carlo experiment.

Sponsor: Dean's Excellence Fund
PIs: Lee C. Adkins and Timothy L. Krehbiel

TREASURY BILL FUTURES: EVIDENCE ON FORECAST POWER, SYSTEMATIC PREMIUMS, AND THE UNBIASED EXPECTATIONS HYPOTHESIS

An Improved forecasting model of Treasury Bill futures prices is developed and the consequences of using the unbiased expectations hypothesis and no systematic risk premium hypothesis are applied to Treasury Bill futures contracts.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PIs: Lee C. Adkins and Timothy L. Krehbiel

IMPROVED ESTIMATOR OF ENERGY MODELS

Improved estimators for energy models are developed and their properties studied in a Monte Carlo experiment.

Sponsor: University Center for Energy Research
PIs: Lee C. Adkins and Jim Eells

BAYES, EMPIRICAL BAYES, AND STEIN ESTIMATORS OF THE PROBIT MODEL

The statistical performances of Bayes, Empirical Bayes, and Stein Estimators of the probit model are studied in a Monte Carlo experiment.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PIs: Lee C. Adkins
Louisiana State University-R. Carter Hill

DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL TO ANALYZE THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION IN MEXICO DURING THE 1980'S

The purpose of this research is to determine how differently the Mexican economy would have performed had the government decontrolled interest rates and deregulated the banking system. Although this is a study of the Mexican economy, results are applicable to a number of other economies that have significant government intervention in the financial sector.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PI: Michael J. Applegate

STABILIZATION POLICY IN OPEN ECONOMICS

A study of relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in large, semi-open economies and small open economies. Focus is on the different degrees of capital mobility associated with the two types of economies.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PI: Michael R. Edgmand

DECOMPOSING UNEMPLOYMENT DATA USING THEIL'S ENTROPY MEASURE

An examination of unemployment data from 1954-1988 broken down by age, race and gender using Theil's entropy measure.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PI: James R. Fain

THE DISTRIBUTION OF BANK LOANS BETWEEN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS IN OKLAHOMA

A study to examine how the passage of branch banking laws in 1983 has affected the distribution of bank loans between urban and rural areas in Oklahoma.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PIs: James R. Fain and Huey-yeh Lin

THE RELATIVE ABILITY TO TAX COAL IN THE WESTERN STATES

This is a study of interstate competition in the taxation of western coal. In contrast to earlier studies, we find that the market for western coal is best characterized using a dominant firm model.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PIs: Mary N. Gade and James R. Fain

THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF INTERGOVERNMENTAL GRANTS

This is a study of intergovernmental grants and their effects on state government finance. Particular emphasis is on comparing the effect of increases in federal grants to state governments relative to the effect of decreasing federal grants to state government.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PI: Mary N. Gade

THE RELATIVE ABILITY TO TAX COAL IN THE WESTERN STATES

The U.S. Department of Energy Coal Supply and Transportation Model provides a setting from which to investigate the behavior of the western states as they compete with one another for tax revenue derived from the extraction of coal.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PIs: Mary N. Gade and James R. Fain

THE IMPACT OF TAX LIMITS ON STATE GOVERNMENT FINANCE: LESSONS FROM OKLAHOMA

The purpose of this book is to analyze the effects of SQ 640 on Oklahoma state government. It focuses on the longer term implications for economic development.

Sponsor: Oklahoma 2000, Inc.
PIs: Mary N. Gade, Kent W. Olson, and Larkin Warner
University of Oklahoma-Alexander Holmes, Robert C. Dauffenbach, and Donald Murray

STATE GOVERNMENT FINANCE IN OKLAHOMA AFTER SQ 640. STATE POLICY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN OKLAHOMA: 1994

This report focuses on the issues raised by SQ 640 for the immediate budget cycle (FY1995). The findings preview the state's expenditure and revenue future as addressed in the longer term study.

Sponsor: Oklahoma 2000, Inc.
PIs: Mary N. Gade, Kent W. Olson, and Larkin Warner
University of Oklahoma-Alexander Holmes, Robert C. Dauffenbach, and Donald Murray

DYNAMIC INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR: A COMPARISON OF MODELS

This study compares the predictive performance of alternative theories of investment. The study, which is empirical in nature, uses aggregate data.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PIs: Michael R. Edgmand, Ahmed A. Abo-Basha, James R. Fain, and Mary N. Gade

WEAKNESSES IN PHARMACEUTICAL PRICE INDEXES

Some recent legislative proposals for government price controls on prescription drugs are partially based on evidence of high rates of increase in the BLS producer price indexes for pharmaceuticals. Analysis of the methodology used to compute these indexes reveals serious shortcomings such as under-representation of young products, lack of adjustment for product quality, and treatment of generic versions of brand name products as completely new goods; these weaknesses cause systematic upward biases for such indexes and therefore the use of these indexes--as currently calculated--to form public policy proposals is a mistake.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PI: Joseph M. Jadlow

OKLAHOMA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN SELECTED SECTORS

This research seeks to determine the development of sectors of the Oklahoma economy according the various "fads" in development theory used to select "the winners"--high technology sectors, linkage industries, basic sectors, etc.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PI: Gerald M. Lage

OKLAHOMA STATE ECONOMIC MODEL

The Oklahoma State Econometric Model of the state's economy which is used to forecast future economic conditions and assess the impact of various policy alternatives. Periodic forecasts are generated during the course of the year and released to the public.

Sponsor: Oklahoma Tax Commission
PIs: Gerald M. Lage, Joshua L. Wiener, Ahmed A. Abo-Basha, and Ronald A. Endsley

OKLAHOMA STATE QUARTERLY ECONOMIC MODEL

The Oklahoma State Quarterly Econometric Model is a large-scale econometric model of the state's economy which is used to produce quarterly forecasts of future economic conditions in Oklahoma, Tulsa, and Oklahoma City.

Sponsors: Oklahoma Gas and Electric and Public Service of Oklahoma
PIs: Gerald M. Lage, Joshua L. Wiener, Ahmed A. Abo-Basha, and Ronald A. Endsley

SUMMER INSTITUTE IN THE U.S. ECONOMY AND PUBLIC POLICY FOR FOREIGN UNIVERSITY TEACHERS

A six week institute was held for educators from around the world covering current topics in economics and U.S. policy. Daily, in-depth discussions centering around five weekly themes were held, followed by intensive study and field trips. The final week of the institute included travel to Dallas and Washington, D.C. to visit relevant organizations with an objective of reinforcing the participants' understanding of the U.S. economy.

Sponsor: United States Information Agency
PIs: Gerald M. Lage, Ronald L. Moomaw, Larkin Warner, Kent W. Olson, and Orley M. Amos
Agricultural Economics-Dean F. Schreiner

A PARTIAL COMPARISON OF JUDICIAL VERSUS ARBITRATIVE PROTECTION OF CONTRACT RIGHTS IN THE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS ARENA

This study compares some of the advantages and disadvantages of using arbitration instead of the traditional court system to settle international disputes and vice-versa.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PI: Tipton F. McCubbins

STRICT LIABILITY FOR PRODUCTS IN CANADA: A MODEL FOR CHANGE?

This study compares U.S. and Canadian Strict Products Liability Law and its implications for tort reform in the United States.

Sponsor: Canadian Embassy: Canadian Studies Program
PIs: Tipton F. McCubbins and Gregory C. Mosier

ADJUSTMENT TO EQUILIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT IN LOCAL LABOR MARKETS

This empirical study examines the speed with which local labor markets adjust to their natural rate of unemployment. It finds that the adjustment is sufficiently fast to make state and federal public-works policies incapable of permanently reducing local unemployment rates.

Sponsors: State of Oklahoma and U.S. Department of Commerce
PI: Ronald L. Moomaw

DETERMINANTS OF ACHIEVEMENT TEST SCORES IN OKLAHOMA PUBLIC SCHOOLS: A PRELIMINARY STUDY

Preliminary evidence indicates that small-enrollment school districts and high student-teacher ratios result in less learning. The study controls for socio-economic characteristics of the students and the school districts.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PIs: Ronald L. Moomaw and Mahzon Yosuf

DETERMINANTS OF PRODUCTIVE EFFICIENCY IN CANADIAN CITIES: A STOCHASTIC FRONTIER APPROACH

First, the study measures the efficiency of manufacturing activity in Canadian cities. It then estimates the determinants of the efficiency differences. In general, manufacturing efficiency is greater in larger cities and in cities with a more-educated labor force.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PIs: Ronald L. Moomaw
Central Missouri State University-Kim McCoy

MARSHALL'S THIRD LAW RECONSIDERED

This paper extends the use of price elasticity to include Becker's notion of the full cost of consumption.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PIs: Edward O. Price, III and Kevin M. Currier

CARTELS, COMPETITION, AND CHEATING: THE NCAA AS CASE STUDY

This paper investigates the impact that competition has on the ability to enforce cartel agreements. An empirical analysis of NCAA violations is performed to test the impact of competition on cartel behavior.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PI: Edward O. Price, III
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and Chapman University-Jill Harris

MONETARY POLICY AND FIXED EXCHANGE RATES

This project investigates the efficacy of monetary policy by comparing the conduct of monetary policy in three West African that have maintained a fixed peg between their currency and the French franc, with that of two other West African countries that have maintained more flexible exchange rates.

Sponsor: Dean's Excellence Fund
PI: Andreas Savvides

CFA FRANC ZONE MEMBERSHIP AND EXCHANGE RATE VARIABILITY

This project compares exchange-rate variability in the members of the CFA franc zone to that of other African countries.

Sponsor: Dean's Excellence Fund
PI: Andreas Savvides

DOES A J-CURVE EXIST FOR TAIWAN AND KOREA?

This study investigates the existence of a J-curve for two newly- industrialized Asian economies (Taiwan and Korea) and shows that no evidence of such a curve can be ascertained.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PIs: Andreas Savvides
Taipei, Taiwan-Han-Min Hsing

FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION IN KOREA AND TAIWAN AND THE INTEREST RATE LINKAGE WITH THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN

This paper investigates the existence of an interest-rate linkage between Korea (Taiwan) and the United States (Japan).

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PIs: Andreas Savvides
Taipei, Taiwan-Han-Min Hsing

MONETARY INTERPRETATIONS OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION

This is a study of monetary interpretations of the Great Depression in relation to the currently prevailing monetary paradigm.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PI: Frank G. Steindl

ON THE SHORTAGE OF BORROWERS IN THE GREAT DEPRESSION

The study concentrates on the interaction of interest rates and realized profit rates in the Great Depression.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PI: Frank G. Steindl

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PERSONNEL ACT CONTRACT WITH U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS, WATER RESOURCE INSTITUTE

This was a one year's assignment as a visiting scholar at Ft. Belvoir, VA. Studies undertaken during this assignment included analysis of waterway user charge proposals, a study of unit costs and other performance measures of waterway segments, and a study of the structure of the towing industry.

Sponsors: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Water Resource Institute
PI: Larkin Warner

STATE GOVERNMENT FINANCE IN OKLAHOMA: PROSPECTS AND STRATEGIES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

This is a book-length study of state government finance in Oklahoma with emphasis on implications of 1992 revenue-raising limitation.

Sponsor: Oklahoma 2000, Inc.
PIs: Larkin Warner, Mary N. Gade, and Kent C. Olson University of Oklahoma-Donald Murray, Alexander Holmes, and Robert C. Dauffenbach

OKLAHOMA CURRENT REALITIES

This is a report on critical features of the Oklahoma economy to be used by Oklahoma Futures as it prepares the five-year economic development plan for the Oklahoma Department of Commerce.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PIs: Larkin Warner
University of Oklahoma-Robert C. Dauffenbach
Oklahoma Dept. of Commerce-Dan Gorin

LIABILITY RULES FOR HAZARDOUS WASTE MANAGEMENT: EFFICIENCY AND EQUITY EFFECTS

This research examines the relationship between the assignment of liability for cost of waste disposal and the volume of illegal disposal using the basic principals and tools of welfare economics. The primary objective is to determine the liability assignment, or share of the external costs of hazardous waste disposal that maximizes economic welfare, when waste generators choose between legal and illegal waste disposal. The equity aspects of the issue are captured by constructing a weighted social welfare function.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PIs: Keith D. Willett and Mohammad H. Menhaj

REGULATION OF PESTICIDE DISCHARGE INTO SURFACE AND GROUNDWATER UNDER UNCERTAINTY

The objective of the proposed research is use a safety rule approach for uncertainty adjustments in quantitative environmental policy decision models. This approach is used to minimize surface and groundwater contamination from pesticides used in a selected study area. The range of policies studied includes economic incentives such as a tax imposed on pesticide applications and farm management practices such as tillage selection and chemical utilization's. Inherent variation and uncertainties in determining the amount and location of pesticide contamination and their resultant affect upon policy selection is addressed by stochastic modeling. A chanced-constrained environmental policy model is linked with a simulation model contamination under parameter uncertainty.

Sponsors: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education
PIs: Keith D. Willett
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering-William F. McTernan

THE ECONOMICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY IN BULGARIA

This research is concerned with the design of environmental policy in Bulgaria. Emphasis is placed on the use of economic incentives as the key tool of environmental policy.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma
PIs: Keith D. Willett
United Nations Development Programs-Dafina Gercheva